(This article was originally posted on Broadband Wireless Internet Access / WiMAX News blog, permalink www.bwianews.com/2005/02/wimax_networkin.html.)
It's good news / bad news when I mention that Glenn Fleishman has launched a new franchise - WiMAX Networking News as an outgrowth of the excellent Wi-Fi Networking News. Good news, because Fleishman and Senior Editor Nancy Gohring do a very good job with Wi-Fi Networking News covering all manner of Wi-Fi developments in home networking, enterprise networking, and Wireless HotSpots (we overlap only on the last, and not so much there either).
Bad news that WiMAX Networking News is much more direct competition for this weblog, Broadband Wireless Internet Access. Then again, perhaps not, given that by name, they may choose to restrict their coverage to WiMAX, while I view the Broadband Wireless Internet Access industry as much bigger than "just WiMAX", which is why I've resisted the temptation to affiliate my work more directly with WiMAX.
A case in point about the difference in coverage is a recent WiMAX Networking News article titled More Details on Sprint WiMAX Plans. Gohring discusses Sprint's possible motivations for not using existing BWIA technology: But its probably important to keep in mind that Sprint has been burned before trying to use its MMDS licenses. It was an early mover in building out networks several years ago after it bought a slew of MMDS licenses but the equipment it used, from a company called Hybrid, just wasnt quite there yet so Sprint shelved the effort.
I feel it's an incorrect characterization that the "Hybrid equipment wasn't quite there yet." I'm very familiar with Sprint's deployment of Hybrid equipment - the Hybrid equipment performed exactly as designed. Sprint's problem with the Hybrid gear was that they tried to load too many customers onto too few base station sectors/channels. Until Sprint reached the oversaturation point, Sprint's Broadband Wireless customers were pretty happy with the performance of the system. In fact, many still are - Sprint froze new customer acquisition, but continues to operate a number of Hybrid systems and at my last check with some remaining customers they're generally happy (once they find a stable DNS server, which Sprint can never seem to manage for very long).
Why is Sprint waiting to deploy Broadband Wireless? It doesn't have a choice - it will be fully occupied with the proposed merger with Nextel. Why is it discontinuing its trial of Flarion systems? Same answer, and the trial being conducted used 1.9 GHz spectrum, not 2.5 - 2.69 GHz spectrum that Sprint and Nextel own.
My prediction is that Sprint and Nextel will do approximately nothing
in deploying public-access Broadband Wireless Internet Access with
their combined 2.5 - 2.69 GHz spectrum licenses. At most, they will
make some limited use of their 2.5 - 2.69 GHz spectrum for backhaul
links to their cell sites. They can't do much more than that - they're
nearly overcommitted as is:
- They have to complete the corporate, legal, financial, and regulatory mechanics of merging two very different companies and cultures, including a planned spinout of Sprint's wireline operations.
- Technologically, they have to migrate all of the existing Nextel customers to Sprint's existing 1.9 GHz CDMA network and Nextel's new 1.9 GHz spectrum being swapped for Nextel's 800 MHz spectrum... and seamlessly replicate the iDEN Push-To-Talk capabilities on top of CDMA... and seamlessly replicate the coverage they had with 800 MHz spectrum... and sort things out with Nextel Partners for roaming coverage in non-metro areas of the US when Nextel Partners may not be able to afford wholesale conversion to 1.9 GHz CDMA systems.
- They have to keep growing the business(es) whose customer bases now include businesses and enterprise (Nextel), consumers (Sprint PCS), and wholesale wireless services (Virgin Mobile, Qwest) against two (now) larger and (now) more formidable competitors in Verizon and Cingular.
Against those factors, Broadband Wireless Internet Access in 2.5 - 2.69 GHz would be a dangerous distraction that Sprint/Nextel simply cannot afford for the foreseeable future. That's not to say that Sprint/Nextel won't keep making interesting "noises", like the announcement that Gohring references about "waiting until WiMAX mobility is ready". Such a tactic might serve to distract Verizon and Cingular into devoting some resources into potentially competing... such as making some noise of their own about using their 2.3 GHz spectrum. But, again, such posturing is a distraction. For the next several years, the battleground for the largest US wireless players will be 1.9 GHz consolidations such as AT&T Wireless and Cingular, the new Nextel 1.9 GHz spectrum, and Verizon assimilating Qwest and NextWave 1.9 GHz spectrum. Not to mention the 1.8 GHz spectrum that the FCC may make available as early as mid-2007.
So what will, ultimately, happen with Sprint/Nextel's 2.5 - 2.69 GHz spectrum? My guess is that they'll end up leasing it to Clearwire in the theory that Clearwire's target market is primarily fixed Broadband Wireless Internet Access that displaces wireline voice and Broadband Internet Access. Who has most to lose from Clearwire's assault? Consider the old adage "The Enemy Of My Enemy... Is My Friend." Sprint/Nextel's competitors - SBC and BellSouth (Cingular) and Verizon (Verizon Wireless) have much more to lose in a contest with Clearwire because they have wireline customers... not to mention an enormous installed base of wireline facilities... to protect.
In any case... Welcome, Glenn and Nancy, to formal coverage of Broadband Wireless Internet Access with the emergence of WiMAX Networking News.
Steve Stroh
Copyright © 2005, 2007 by Steve Stroh
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